Given the tragedies swelling across each part of the world, be it from Hungary to India, from the Philippines to the United States, from the United Kingdom to Brazil, all we are left with is our nerve to laugh at our own problems. I was reading an article about the Nobel Laureates namely Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, the wonder couple who bagged the prestigious Nobel Prize in Economics along with Michael Kremer and how apart from being geniuses, they also have the ability to laugh at their own profession. Their new book tells a joke about a woman who’s told by her doctor she has only six months to live. The doctor then tells her that to make the half-year seem longer, she should move to South Dakota (an American state that was ranked the second-most boring in a 2018 US survey) — and marry an economist.
It’s funny to me, that now is the time to listen to our economists, yet there is the majority engrossing themselves on the left and the right debates which have turned into a high-decibel slanging match. Some things really take a lot of time to change. When will the nation know?
Nevertheless, the real GDP growth has gone down from a peak of 8.2% in 2016-17 to 6.8% in 2018-19, with the fourth quarter of 2018-19 dipping to 5.8%. The first quarter of 2019-20 is expected to dip further to 5.6%. Nor for that matter the fall in private consumption, which has gone down since the second quarter of 2018-19. Private consumption has been the main driver of India’s growth, contributing about 60% to GDP, and its fall is dragging economic growth further down.
The problem, as Banerjee mentions in his podcast with Akash Banerjee ( journalist and satirist); he said that the economy needs to get moving and hence the government needs to stimulate and create demand. Since consumption expenditure is directly linked to income, especially for the lower and middle income working population forming the majority of the population of India, it is vital to improve their wages to spur consumption demand.
After much thought, I shuffled in my seat and searched for statements made by Mr. Raghram Rajan, our ex- RBI governor, on the Indian economy and they were rightly grave.
Rajan said the key problem for India is that it has not been able to figure out “New sources of growth”. He also added that “ill-conceived demonetization and the poorly executed GST roll-out” are the two significant reasons behind the slowdown.
Sectors including automobile, real estate, financial services – non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) in particular, and manufacturing have shown signs of impact from this economic slowdown.
Is the future Bleak or Bright?
Given the current situation, there are many who have enhanced their capital seem to be safe for now, but the conditions are so rickety one can’t be sure about similar plans. Therefore, V K Vijayakumar (Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit) said that the only strategy, and the best one, for investors is to put money systematically, oblivious of the short-term ups and downs of the market. Investors should remember that stocks are available at attractive valuations during periods of pessimism.
Honestly, the only things as an entrepreneur and a marketer are: Follow the trends, invest smartly, demystify all that is happening in the economy and also involve with thinking about what needs to be done to climb out of this black hole.
Always remember, fortune favors the brave! Wishing you all the success!